The Sweet 16 and Elite 8 have come and gone, and while all three men’s teams have been eliminated from postseason play, the Final Four in the women’s bracket is well represented, with both the Briar Cliff and Northwestern ladies still alive and kickin’, unfortunately they play each other, but at least one GPAC team will be in the title game. I had a chance to watch a couple of the GPAC women’s games this past weekend live, and before I really delve into that matchup, here are some observations from Sioux City.
• First off, what happened to Hastings? I really did expect them roll through their bracket with relative ease, I was wrong. That being said I watched the Grand View vs. Shawnee State game in the round of eight and it became apparent why the upset wasn’t really that far fetched, Grand View was a matchup nightmare for Hastings. We all know that as Lindsay Ducey goes Hastings goes, and with her combination of size, strength, quickness, and smarts; she’s nearly impossible to stop, and often she wins matchups with sheer intimidation. Grand View was not intimidated, and had enough size and athleticism that they could guard Ducey one on one without a lot of double teaming. That strategy allowed Ducey to score 32 points, but nobody else scored more than eight and Goliath was knocked out of the tournament.
• The Morningside and College of the Ozarks box score has to be one of the most unusual box scores ever! C of O committed 25 turnovers, while Morningside committed only eight, yet C of O won by 18? I was at this game, and despite the fact that the Lady Mustangs forced that many turnovers, they really played extremely poor on the defensive end. Morningside employed their usual high pressure, full court defensive strategy, but gambled too much, and did a poor job with their defensive rotations in the half court; which gave C of O wide open looks all night! C of O shot 14-24 from downtown, including a scorching hot 7-9 in the second half. C of O also destroyed Morningside on the boards, outrebounding them 54-31.
• Northwestern is playing at an incredibly high level, and is probably the favorite to win it all, but they had by far the easiest path of any Final Four team. Feeding off of #8 seed Indiana Northwest, #4 seed Sterling, who boosted their record in a weak KCAC conference; and Iowa Wesleyan who beat Grand View three times, but hasn’t defeated any other national qualifiers all season. They will finally get a challenge Monday against Briar Cliff, as they take on a team they have beaten twice, and lost to once during the season.
• Briar Cliff on the other hand has had a very difficult path to the Final Four. Slugging out a very physical, and from all reports, poorly officiated game against Holy Names in round one before taking on traditional tourney power Cedarville in round two, and a two loss Cardinal Stritch team in the round of eight. It doesn’t get any easier, as Liz Grider and friends now must match up with red hot Northwestern College.
#1 seed Northwestern College (29-5) vs. #3 seed Briar Cliff University (28-7)
Wow, what a great matchup, it’s really too bad the real world won’t allow me to attend this game live, as it’s sure to be a great one! This will be the fourth matchup of the season between Northwestern and Briar Cliff, with Northwestern winning two of three. The first win for the Red Raiders came at home in overtime despite allowing Liz Grider to score 46 points; Briar Cliff won the next regular season game at home by 10 in regulation with Grider dropping 40 points; and the final matchup was won by Northwestern 94-75 in Orange City in the GPAC tourney semis. In the final matchup, Grider was held to only four points on 2-12 shooting and didn’t attempt a single free throw; I think it’s safe to assume that won’t happen again. What will happen should come down to these three factors:
• Grider’s Greatness vs. Northwestern’s Balance- We all know that as Grider goes, Briar Cliff goes, and she will certainly be the best player on the floor come Monday evening; However, Northwestern has four different players averaging 13 points or more each game and make teams pick their poison defensively. Most people who follow GPAC basketball know that Becca Hurley and Randa Hulstein have been first team all conference each of the last two years for Northwestern, but Kami Kuhlmann was second team all conference this year, and Kendra De Jong was the conference freshman of the year. Grider will have to have a great game, but you can’t expect 40 points every time out, so Megan Salcedo and Morgan Brown will have to have good games to offset the balance of Northwestern.
• Home Sweet Home- Briar Cliff is playing in their home town, but Northwestern is just a short hour drive from Sioux City, and is certain to have their share of fans. I think that in games like this the crowd can definitely swing the momentum, and change the result of the game, who will have this advantage?
• Turnovers- I know it’s somewhat cliché to say it, but turnovers should have a huge impact on this game. Both teams play an up-tempo style which forces turnovers, but also makes them prone to committing them. Both teams average around 20 turnovers each game, but Briar Cliff throughout the season has forced more, and has a +7 turnover margin, compared to Northwestern who is about even in the category. Briar Cliff needs to win this category, if they want to advance to the championship game.
This should be a great game that goes down to the wire, but I just have a hunch that it might be Briar Cliff’s year.
Prediction: Briar Cliff 85- Northwestern 82